Die Ostseesturmflut vom 19.-21.10.2023 aus der Sicht des Wasserstandsvorhersagedienstes Ostsee

A brief overview is given of the extent to which the actual forecasts and warnings during the storm surge on the German Baltic Sea coast from October 19-21, 2023 corresponded with reality, with a focus on the western Bay of Kiel. There, the forecasts were too low, which in Flensburg was due to model forecasts that were too low and in the Schlei was probably due to the influence of precipitation not being taken into account. It was also noted that it would be helpful to specify a confidence interval in order to make the forecasts and warnings easier to understand and use in future.