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The severe storm tide that hit Hamburg on 16/17 February 1962 is no longer among the ten highest on record. The height of the storm tide water levels on 16/17 February 1962 along the Elbe was limited by the height of the dykes at that time and was greatly influenced by dyke breaches and flooding along the river. The storm tide of 16/17 February 1962 is being re-simulated using today's coastal protection measures and current topography to determine the possible water level along the Elbe. The water level of the recalculated 1962 storm tide in Hamburg St. Pauli is the same as the highest storm tide observed to date, which occurred on 3 January 1976. 

To verify the model used for the German Bight and the Elbe, the 6 December 2013 storm tide is modelled in the same way, using today's topography and wind data from the 20CRv3 atmospheric reanalysis dataset. The resulting water levels are then compared with measurements. The findings from modelling the 2013 storm tide are then incorporated into modelling the 1962 storm tide.

In addition, various sensitivity studies are carried out. For instance, closing the flood barriers on the Elbe tributaries results in a rise in the highest water level during storm tide by up to 5 cm along the tidal Elbe. Selecting the extreme weather situation with the highest water level in Cuxhaven from the 20CRv3 ensemble and using it to calculate the water level along the Elbe results in an increase of 10 to 20 cm in Cuxhaven and 30 to 40 cm in Hamburg St. Pauli.

A sensitivity study examining the potential impact of a rise in sea levels combined with various discharge scenarios for the Elbe during the 1962 storm tide reveals the potential range of changes in high water levels along the Elbe due to climate change. Sea level rise increases storm tide peak water levels deep into the Elbe. Simultaneously increasing discharge from the inland Elbe would further raise the peak storm tide water level in the upper reaches of the tidal Elbe.